The AI Job Displacement Map: 72 occupations, four quadrants.
A populated 2×2 placement of named U.S. occupations along two axes: (a) whether current generative AI augments the role or replaces it, and (b) whether workers in the role have high or low bargaining power to capture the AI surplus. Filter by sector, click any occupation for the evidence base, or download the CSV.
The Compounders
AI multiplies their output; their bargaining power converts the multiple into wages, options, or autonomy.
The Treadmillers
AI multiplies output; the firm captures the multiple. The hiring threshold rises annually at flat pay.
The Negotiators
The role is being restructured or replaced. Collective bargaining or licensing turns the transition into a managed change.
The Casualties
The role is going, the worker has no leverage, and the public conversation rarely names them.
Methodology
Each occupation is scored on two indices, each scaled 0–100.
Augmentation index (low = augmented, high = replaced). Synthesizes Eloundou et al. (2023) GPT-exposure scores, McKinsey 2026 task-level automation estimates, and BLS occupational projections. Below 50 is dominantly augmented, above 50 is dominantly replaced.
Bargaining-power index. Composite of (a) U.S. unionization rate within the occupation, (b) presence and stringency of licensing barriers, (c) labor-market concentration (HHI by occupation × MSA from BLS OEWS), and (d) the NWLB HAPI Network Capital dimension averaged for workers in the occupation. Above 50 is high bargaining power.
Placements are conservative and reflect 2026 conditions, not 2030 projections. They will be re-estimated annually for the next edition.
Citation: No Worker Left Behind (2026). The 2026 AI Job Displacement Map. Available at noworkerleftbehind.org/ai-job-map. Released under CC BY 4.0.
Occupation
The evidence in 2026
If you're in this role
Sources
This is what an open workforce science looks like.
The map will be re-estimated annually. Researchers, policymakers, and journalists: data is CC BY 4.0. Workers: take the diagnostic next.